Compelling signals why 2023 could be a federal election year

It is without fail that in any minority Parliament, speculation runs rampant on when the next election will be called the longer the sitting government remains in power. History has shown the average lifespan of a minority government is 18 to 24 months, and at present we are fast approaching that timeframe.

Most of the political punditry class has been adamant we will not be heading to the polls in 2023. Despite these prevailing winds of opinion, events over the past year and upcoming key indicators should give rise to the prospect that 2023 may indeed be the year the writ is dropped for the next federal election.

That said, here are some of the compelling reasons why we could be gearing up for a federal election in 2023:

Liberals getting their “ducks in order”

As first reported by the Hill Times, Liberal MPs were sent an email last November informing them of their obligation to fundraise two-thirds of their election expenses by March 1, 2023, otherwise they risk not having their nomination papers signed to run in the next election.

Some Liberal strategists suggest this was done to ward off complacency and to have the party ready for the next election, while also sorting out who will be running for re-election from those who will be stepping aside.

Several Liberal MPs have voiced displeasure at the tight deadline, putting undue pressure while also not understanding how these nomination rules will be impacted by Election Canada's riding redistribution exercise for April 2024.

Is there something to this date of March 1, 2023, given so much is unclear, with even the Liberals’ own backbenchers wondering? If we are to believe that the Liberals intend to govern for as long as their agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP) affords them (February 2025), why not more latitude with the self-imposed timeframe?

It could be that the Liberals want to have certainty in their election readiness in order to accommodate a triggering of an election following the release of their 2023 budget, especially knowing that regions with little to no Liberal support are set to gain additional ridings from Election Canada's redistribution plan for early 2024, meaning the party would likely prefer to get in front of those changes before it comes into effect.

Outcome of the Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection

From the outset of Pierre Poilievre's election as Conservative leader, his party has consistently managed to stay well ahead of the Liberals in public opinion polling. For instance, the latest figures from Nanos Research shows the Conservatives with a lead of 34% support versus the Liberals’ 29%, reflective of similar trendlines in a variety of other surveys.

However, in what was universally viewed as Poilievre's first electoral test in the byelection of Mississauga-Lakeshore late last year, the Conservatives got trounced by the Liberals.

In fairness, the riding has traditionally been a Liberal stronghold, and the Conservatives did not pour much energy into the race, partly by keeping Poilievre away from campaigning there, while also presenting an ill-fitted “law-and-order” candidate who for some odd reason was not addressing the predominant issue facing Canadians these days, which is cost of living.

Nonetheless, the widespread thinking is that for any party to form government, especially a majority, it needs to do well in the “905,” a cluster of Greater Toronto Area (GTA) ridings, and Mississauga-Lakeshore is one of those ridings. Case in point, the last time the Conservatives won a majority government under Stephen Harper in 2011, this riding went to the Tories.

For the Liberals, this byelection result may be seen as proof positive that they still hold sway in the GTA, which was their lion’s share of support in the last federal election. And so, instead of allowing Poilievre to get better acquainted with Canadian voters (though it could be argued this also helps the Liberals), Justin Trudeau may be tempted to initiate a snap election, to take advantage of Poilievre's perceived electoral weaknesses: the GTA, support amongst women voters, and largely those who still do not know enough about the Conservative leader.

Otherwise, drawing out this current Parliament beyond 2023 could theoretically help Poilievre gain the necessary traction to mitigate some of those electoral weaknesses, a scenario the Liberals would obviously like to avoid. Furthermore, Poilievre's support of the Freedom Convoy is attack fodder for the Liberals, and waiting too long into the future to have an election would lessen the potency of such attacks should the Convoy become a distant memory, combined with worsening economic pain, which goes to the next point.

Looming economic recession

The vast majority of economists are forecasting an eventual recession some time this year. The central bank's seemingly endless increases to the interest rates, along with global oil prices expected to continue to rise with the cost of everything else, are setting up troubling economic conditions for Canadians. Even Trudeau himself has acknowledged that this year will be a “tough year.”

Almost without exception, all incumbent governments bear the brunt of the blame for the conditions brought on by a recession, no matter the peripheral circumstances.

Yet, in contrast to the gloomy economic forecasts, the latest data from Statistics Canada reveal the country has gained 104,000 new jobs in the last month, with the unemployment rate down to 5%, conditions a governing party would certainly want to tout.

This being so, why would the Liberals then wait for the onset of a recession with nothing to gain out of it, when such a situation can be pre-emptively avoided by going to the polls instead, against a still unproven and polarizing Conservative leader.

It is more likely though that the Liberals will simply try to weather through the impending storm to wait for better economic conditions in which to launch their election bid, but this strategy would be contingent on the NDP taking their own political risk of seeing to be propping up a government at a time when the citizenry would be most disaffected during a recession, taking us to the last indicator on why there might be an election in 2023.

Liberal-NDP Supply and Confidence Agreement

This agreement has had its own share of speculation as to whether it will truly hold until February 2025, in part because the Liberals are expected to continue fulfilling its commitments to the NDP in exchange for their ongoing support. However, upon closer examination, such commitments are looking to be increasingly more difficult to attain, thereby setting up the potential for a dissolving of the deal by either side.

As mentioned, the anticipated economic turbulence should hamstring the federal government from pouring more stimulus gasoline onto the raging inflationary and recessionary fires, and yet, the Supply and Confidence Agreement calls for big-ticket spending items by the end of 2023, including an expanded Dental Care program for those under 18, seniors, and persons with disabilities; and, the introduction of new Pharmacare legislation.

The challenge with either of these slated commitments is the legislative requirements for collaboration with the provincial Premiers, a group Trudeau has a clear aversion in meeting, as previously written in this newsletter, and reaffirmed in one of his year-end interviews. How then, can anyone expect these commitments to be achieved without such collaboration?

On that note, some fraying into the stability of this agreement has already started to show, with NDP leader Jagmeet Singh recently threatening to pull his support of the deal if Trudeau takes no action on the health care crisis. While this may be seen as mere political posturing, Trudeau predictably has not taken the bait, nor seems particularly interested in heeding Singh's calls.

In other words, the Liberals knowing they will not meet the health care demands or the commitments in the agreement may end up just calling a snap election instead when the timing suits them, or, the NDP will be forced to pull away from an untenable situation of seeing their demands not being met, as highlighted earlier, with the Liberals calling their bluff.

Either way, the federal budget early this quarter will reveal whether the Liberals are intent on pursuing an election, or will be in it for the long haul.

It has been reported that with Poilievre’s ascension, it has reinvigorated Trudeau to contest the next election, eager to take on his political rival. Given Canadians have become accustomed to this Prime Minister's preference for performing and campaigning over actual governing, it is hard to envisage him not looking for the soonest opportunity to ignite a pretense upon which to thrust the country into another election, much as he did in 2021 in the middle of a pandemic (despite indicating he would not).

While nothing is ever guaranteed in politics, as outlined in this analysis, there are plenty of signals thus far to suggest that the country may need to prepare itself for an electoral showdown in 2023.