Special Edition: Historical perspectives on Canada's upcoming federal election
With a federal election expected imminently amid the uncertainties of the U.S. tariff threat, there are hints from Canada's electoral history that can provide insights into how the campaign may unfold
Canada has a new prime minister.
Upon capturing the Liberal leadership in a landslide victory, Mark Carney has now officially been sworn in as the country's twenty-fourth Prime Minister, and first to have never held elected office.
Armed with a leaner cabinet and renewed sense of purpose, many anticipate Carney will capitalize on the enthusiasm and momentum of his leadership by pivoting straight into a general election. And frankly, there may be no better time for the Liberals to seek a fresh, if not sorely needed, mandate from the people of Canada.
In review of the latest public opinion poll by Leger, among others polls as well, the Liberals under its newly minted leader have made an astounding comeback, essentially erasing a near consistent 20 point lead enjoyed by the Conservatives over the last several months. However, a favourable bump in the polls was always expected in the wake of Justin Trudeau’s departure.
Part of the rise in Liberal fortunes has also coincided with the re-emergence of U.S. President Donald Trump on the geopolitical stage, and their corresponding efforts to combat Trump’s threats to Canada's economic viability and sovereignty. The entire trade saga with the U.S. has consumed the political discourse of this country, while galvanizing our sense of national unity again.
Accordingly, a recent Nanos Research survey found that the bilateral relationship with the U.S. has become the top of mind issue for Canadians, with jobs / economy following at a close second.
Therein lies the fundamental clash for this upcoming election: will the campaign be waged mostly by the U.S. trade war and who best manages that relationship; or, will the focus still remain on the pervasive economic woes that have plagued this country during Trudeau's time in office?
Carney's first press conference as prime minister served as an attempt to meld the two issues together, as means of taking control of the narrative using the forum and tools of government at his disposal, while undercutting the Conservatives partisan attacks, such as nullifying the consumer portion of the carbon tax.
Nonetheless, an election campaign invariably takes on a life of its own. While many things on the campaign trail can change rather quickly, what we do know is that the next election will be contested on the aforementioned dueling issues. Depending on what narrative wins out over the course of the campaign, history can serve as a useful barometer in determining some possible outcomes, either way.
Canada's trade relationship with the United States
Rarely does international relations register as a central campaign issue for Canadians during any writ period. Moreover, our relationship with the U.S. was always considered to be secure, until the Trump presidency upended that foundational understanding, now presenting itself as an existential threat to our mutual prosperity.
Only a few times in Canada’s history has the relationship with the U.S. been the predominant issue of a federal election campaign.
In 1891, Wilfrid Laurier’s first national campaign as Liberal leader was concentrated on his bold initiative of reciprocity with the U.S., by alleviating tariffs to open markets for Canadian farmers to increase their export earnings, while also being able to purchase cheaper American farm machinery and other goods. John A. Macdonald’s Conservatives emphasized protectionism for central Canada's fledgling manufacturing sector from American competition, consistent with his National Policy. Macdonald’s masterful appeals for stability won the day, securing his government a fourth consecutive term.
Another campaign to reference was the 1988 federal election, where Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives revived Laurier's push for free trade with the U.S., after many years of domestic economic stagnation. Despite charges from Liberal leader John Turner that Canada's political and economic independence would be subsumed by the greater economic power to the south, Mulroney’s drive for free trade ultimately saw him re-elected with a second straight majority government.
The takeaway feature from both the 1891 and 1988 campaigns - aside from loyalties being questioned and heightened levels of patriotism - was that when our engagement with the U.S. became the principal ballot question, Canadians’ preference was to have steady and trusted leadership in navigating that relationship, which meant returning the incumbent government to power.
This follows an axiom in politics, not to change leadership during tumultuous periods, as means of staving off further volatility. In turn, a rallying effect happens around the sitting government to steer its citizenry past the crisis. One only has to notice how the federal and provincial governments used the COVID-19 pandemic to leverage the crisis towards their own successful re-election bids.
With his economic bona fides, Carney is hoping to cast himself as the steady hand amidst the tariff crisis with the Americans. Carney projects a calm public persona, which may also serve him well in the face of this chaos, striking observers as being tailor-made for the moment. All this to say, if the U.S. threat continues to be the primary issue for the upcoming election, then history has shown that Canadians are more apt in keeping the incumbent government in place for the sake of stability.
Canada’s current economic landscape
For Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, however, the desire would be to remind Canadians about the financial hardships endured over the last nine years with Trudeau at the helm, and to keep the focus firmly on the domestic front.
Under Trudeau’s prime ministership, Canada has seen unprecedented levels of deficit spending and debt accumulation, alongside a lack of productivity growth and capital investment, putting the country on a track of being an economic laggard amongst peer advanced economies.
Fiscal mismanagement has undoubtedly contributed to the affordability challenges faced by many Canadians, effectively making us relatively poorer compared to other economies within the OECD. Incidentally, this has situated Canada in a more vulnerable economic position to contend with the aggressive posture from the Trump administration.
The current state of Canada’s economy is reminiscent of the malaise Pierre Elliott Trudeau had left Canada when he resigned - record debt levels, soaring deficits, shrinking productivity, and a staggering flight of capital - combining that with Trudeau's unpopularity at the end of his tenure, set the conditions for a change election in 1984.
To thwart the change impulse of the electorate to gravitate towards Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives in 1984, the Liberals annointed Turner as their new leader, touting him as a capable fiscal manager with Bay Street ties and the promise to govern as a contrarian to his predecessor, similar to what we are now witnessing with Carney. It did not work.
While Turner was able to initially close the polling gap and embrace the change narrative ahead of the election, eventually he was unable to shake off his affiliation with Trudeau. Turner's record as Trudeau's finance minister, along with the slew of last-minute patronage appointments made at the behest of Trudeau following his resignation, resulted in the electorate repudiating the entire party, and handing Mulroney the largest majority in Canadian history.
With a comparable aim, Poilievre has already begun highlighting Carney's perceived ties to Justin Trudeau, citing his role as previous economic advisor to the Liberal Party; his public endorsements of longstanding Trudeau policies, such as the carbon pricing regime; and, Carney’s inner circle being comprised of Trudeau staffers and cabinet ministers.
If the Conservatives can successfully frame the next election as a referendum on the Trudeau years and associated economic wreckage, rather than solely becoming a contest about who can best deal with Trump, Carney may end up suffering the same fate as Turner.
Since Confederation, Canada has never had to fret about the prospect of annexation by the United States, yet Trump is intent on disrupting all norms and conventions, for lesser understood reasons. The unpredictability of his administration has had a materially negative impact on financial markets and various industries across North America, and has certainly influenced Canadian domestic politics as well.
In many ways, the Trump threat and Canada's current economic standing are unavoidably intertwined. Even so, as this analysis has attempted to illustrate, whichever of these two issues becomes more heavily weighted in the minds of Canadians for the next election campaign, history can sometimes prove to be a foreteller, in a time where the world seems to be mired in rampant uncertainty.